SEC Unbiased: Tennessee can bring chaos to the College Football Playoff

Tennessee has been playing with fire all season.

And on Saturday, they burned themselves with SEVEN turnovers.

Injuries and penalties aside, losing a game by one possession after throwing away seven in the garbage is as gut-wrenching as it gets.

But there remains a glimmer of hope for the Vols after their 45-38 double-overtime loss to Texas A&M.

For starters, they proved that they are indeed back from the doldrums of SEC East cellar dwelling and into national prominence. While the aforementioned injuries are no excuse for a seven-turnover performance, it’s still a monumental achievement that Tennessee forced overtime against a supremely talented Aggie squad in a hostile environment.

If there was ever a good loss, then Saturday’s loss was exactly that. And the coveted AP Poll agrees. The Vols opened the season ranked No. 9, but soon plummeted to No. 17 after escaping with a 20-13 overtime win over Appalachian State in the season opener. Tennessee managed to scratch and claw its way back to No. 9 after back-to-back wins over Florida and Georgia, setting up a top-10 matchup with Texas A&M.

Despite dropping their first game of the season, the Vols remained in the same position. But now from the peanut farms in Tuscaloosa comes Alabama, who only happens to be the No. 1 team in the country and the greatest dynasty in the history of college football.

You know what teams with injuries at key positions on both sides of the ball always say, “Geez, I really am happy that we get to face a Nick Saban coached team!”

On offense, mum’s the word so far on Jalen Hurd’s undisclosed injury. However, his presence wasn’t necessarily missed, as the combination of Alvin Kamara and John Kelly in the backfield provided the Vols with more balance and dynamic play calling than they’ve experienced all season.

On defense, the orange and white are limping to the finish line. The future of linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin remains uncertain at this point. He could either opt for surgery in preparation for the NFL Draft or return to the field at some point this season. Fellow linebacker Darrin Kirkland Jr. is set to return this weekend after nursing an ankle injury that occurred in the Battle at Bristol, but it’s highly unlikely he’ll be at full speed. Shutdown cornerback Cameron Sutton might return in time for the postseason, but even that’s somewhat of a stretch.

To make matters worse, defensive tackle Danny O’Brien was dismissed from the team on Monday after violating team rules. The defensive line is the team’s strongest and deepest unit, but any strike of depth is still unwarranted. The lack of bodies doesn’t bode well for Tennessee on Saturday, but could potentially play in their favor down the road.

If the Vols lose to the Crimson Tide on Saturday, but cross paths with them again in the SEC Championship with a healthier squad and manage to pull of an upset, then Tennessee at 11-2 would bring chaos to the College Football Playoff committee and potentially find a way to sneak in if other dominoes fall.

I don’t want to pretend like I know what the committee is thinking when they evaluate what four teams should make the playoff. Over the past two seasons, they’ve faced challenging scenarios, most notably the Ohio State-Baylor-TCU debate in 2014.

If the Vols finish the year 11-2, with a victory over Alabama in the SEC Championship, then the committee has to think long and hard about including a two-loss team. Of course, that depends on how the rest of the field shapes up.

Let’s assume both Clemson and Louisville win out in the ACC, putting them at 13-0 and 11-1, respectively. Let’s also assume that both Ohio State and Michigan enter their season-ending clash at 11-0, and the winner goes on to win the Big Ten Championship. Finally, let’s assume Washington plows through the Pac-12 like they should and finishes 13-0.

What does the committee do?

Clemson, Washington and the winner of Ohio State/Michigan are virtual locks to earn bids into the CFP, but left in contention are Louisville, the loser of Ohio State/Michigan, Tennessee and Alabama.

This is where the purpose of expanding from the BCS to the playoff and the committee’s philosophy receives its litmus test. Over the past two seasons, the committee hasn’t held up its end of the bargain. Instead of including the four best teams, they continue to give into the demands of the old system. They don’t follow the eye test as much as they care about a team winning its conference championship. It’s why Florida State was included in 2014 and Michigan State last season. It’s also why both teams lost by a combined score of 97-20.

The committee’s job isn’t simple. The evaluation process is much more complex than wins and losses.

They take into account ratings—don’t act like they don’t—as well as the circumstances surrounding wins and losses. Should the Cardinals be penalized for losing by six points at Death Valley against the defending national runner-up? Should the Vols be punished for sustaining devastating injury after injury during their toughest stretch of the season? Should the Crimson Tide be excluded simply because they lost on a neutral site to a quality SEC opponent after running through a brutal gauntlet of road games during the regular season unbeaten?

It’s basically an impossible situation because no matter what the committee decides, they’ll receive push back. If they side with a conference champion, they’ll receive criticism for excluding one-loss teams over a two-loss team. If they side with the eye test, then they’ll have three teams to sort through. Determining which of the three is the most deserving is no small task.

Tennessee’s chances of making the CFP are slim. Only once in the BCS era did a two-loss team make it to the National Championship. Of course, that team happened to be the SEC’s own LSU Tigers in 2007 (after beating the Vols in the SEC Championship).

However, I don’t see that as a possibility this season. The SEC doesn’t carry the same aura of dominance it has in the past. Plus, the Vols play in the SEC East and won’t face any noteworthy team in the month of November, which is the pivotal month of the college football season.

Aside from overcoming Hurricane Matthew and winning the SEC East, all that’s left for Team 120 is breaking apart the system and causing mass controversy.

Sorry.

Edited by Dalton King

Featured image by Donald Page, courtesy of Tennessee Athletics