Making a case for North Carolina to win the NCAA Tournament

A season ago, North Carolina found themselves on the losing end during one of the craziest championship game finishes in NCAA Tournament history. Despite losing seniors Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson, this years’ Tar Heels team is fully capable of seeking revenge on last year’s heartbreaking defeat.

Led by juniors Justin Jackson and Joel Berry, North Carolina won the “almighty” ACC regular season title (14-4) by two games and are the only team to represent the conference in the Elite Eight.

After squeezing out a 72-65 victory over Arkansas in the Round of 32, the Tar Heels won their Sweet Sixteen matchup against Butler with relative ease. The 92-80 victory now sets up a rematch with Kentucky in the Elite Eight.

Given Malik Monk doesn’t score 47 again and North Carolina evens up the season series, Roy Williams will be the only coach in the Final Four with any experience at that stage. It would be hard to bet against the two time champion at this point.

Here’s why North Carolina is set to win its third championship since 2005.

Prolific Offensive Attack

For a second straight season, the Tar Heels rank amongst one of the best offenses in the country. They ranked third in the country in both assists (18.2) and field goals made (30.9) per game. Their 84.7 points per game puts the Heels eighth best nationally.

The ascendance of Jackson’s game plays a large part in North Carolina’s success this season. The ACC Player of the Year put up season averaged 18.2 points per game while making over 2.5 threes per game at a 38 percent mark.

With Paige gone, Berry’s taken over as the floor general and it’s pretty obvious. He’s better than his predecessor. The junior point guard averaged 14.7 points and 3.6 assists and also knocked down over two triples a game while shooting 40 percent from distance.

In regards to North Carolina’s post play, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks are averaging over 12 points a game. Freshman reserve big man Tony Bradley averages roughly seven points and five boards in just about 15 minutes of action.

The Tar Heels rotation runs about ten players deep and this depth serves as a main contributor towards their success on the offensive end. The combination of star power and quality role players makes North Carolina one of the toughest matchups for opposing coaches to game-plan for.

Rebounding

Not only is North Carolina’s offense one of the most respected in the nation, but its’ work on the boards may be the team’s top strength. In fact, North Carolina ranks first in both total, and offensive rebounds per game.

The Tar Heels work on the offensive glass is ultimately what makes them nearly impossible to contain on that end of the floor. If Berry and Jackson aren’t knocking down their outside shots? That’s fine.

While grabbing 41.2 percent of its’ misses, North Carolina totals nearly 14 offensive rebounds per game. Both of those numbers comfortably rank as the best in college basketball.

Meeks ranks just outside the top ten in offensive boards averaging 3.65 per contest. In the coming years, Bradley is set to become one of the best offensive rebounders in the country. As a freshman, he hauled in 2.7 offensive boards per game. In just 15 minutes! To put that in perspective, he recorded more offensive board than defensive, he only scored two more field goals than he did offensive rebounds, and did I mention he only plays 15 minutes per game?

Throw in Jackson and Hicks, who both average at least one offensive rebound per game, North Carolina’s efforts on the offensive glass can mentally break-down an opposing team.

Defending the 3-point line

While North Carolina’s offense is capable of leading them to a championship, the defense is what can ultimately hold them back. Especially when discussing the inability to limit the damage done by opponents from beyond the arc.

The Tar Heels give up eight triples a game, which ranks them in the bottom third nationally. When looking back on their losses, this problem can explain the regular season losses to Kentucky and Duke. Malik Monk hit eight threes in the first matchup with North Carolina, while Duke averaged over 11 threes in its two victories over the Heels.

If the Heels want a shot to revenge for last season’s title loss, they’ll need to maximize their focus on defending the three ball against both Kentucky and Oregon, their potential final four opponent.

Ultimately, if North Carolina can limit the damage done by Malik Monk, they match-up fairly well with John Calipari’s team. Beyond that, they would be a favorite against the other three Final Four teams. Thanks to a dynamic offensive attack and dominant efforts on the offensive glass, the Tar Heels appear to be the current favorite to cut down the nets.

No. 1 North Carolina and No. 2 Kentucky are set to tip-off at 5:05 ET on Sunday.

Edited by David Bradford