No. 13 Kentucky vs Tennessee preview and prediction

The 13th-ranked Kentucky Wildcats (20-5, 10-2 SEC) host the Tennessee Volunteers (14-11, 6-6 SEC) on Tuesday. Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET.

The Wildcats are seeking revenge after the Vols pulled off an 82-80 upset in the previous meeting back in Knoxville on Jan. 24. Kentucky has not been swept by Tennessee since the 1998-1999 season and currently hold a 44-game winning streak at home over unranked opponents.

Since toppling the Wildcats, the Vols won their ensuing two meetings, but are 1-2 in their last three games. For a team hovering on the bubble, each loss significantly lessens Tennessee’s chances of participating in March Madness, as the previous two losses have the Vols’s RPI drop from 35 to 47. While a loss at Rupp Arena won’t add much harm, a win in such a difficult venue for opposing teams to play in would do wonder for Rick Barnes’ group. In fact, Barnes doesn’t view Rupp Arena to affect his team.

“It’s one of the great arenas to play,” Barnes said on Monday. “… the passion, you can feel it when you go there, but we’ve been in big arenas and we’ve been in places where the crowd has been good.”

As for the Wildcats, they’ve also suffered from a streak of poor play, specifically during the last ten minutes of games. And although Kentucky has now won two straight games after a brutal 1-3 stretch, neither performance offered much optimism that John Calipari’s team was “back.” On Monday, Calipari mentioned that playing with confidence will be the key for his team returning to form.

“So, you either play with confidence, or you’re coming out,” Calipari said. “So what does that mean? You play with confidence. You can miss a shot confidently. Miss a shot, confidently play defense.”

In the Wildcats’ last six games, opponents have combined to score 116 more points in the second half. The trend seems to be the root cause behind Calipari’s comments, and until proven otherwise, it’ll be the team’s Achilles heel moving forward.

Kentucky’s offense is led by a number of young, talented weapons, and although the Vols will face quite the mismatch when on defense, the Wildcats have proven on several occasions they’re capable of struggling on defense as well.

With that being said, Tennessee hasn’t won in Rupp Arena since 2006 and are currently 3-3 this season in conference road games. For the Vols to avoid another loss and a 1-3 skid, it all comes down to competing for a full 40 minutes. During its 1-2 stretch, Tennessee has held a 15-point lead with 15 minutes remaining in the game in both losses. That lack of execution in the clutch could ultimately pop the Vols’ bubble.

Tennessee is led by freshman Grant Williams, who is averaging nearly 19 points per game over the past five games, including a 30-point performance in the Vols’ 76-75 loss to Georgia. Williams will look to shine again, but this time, he wants to get the win.

“Playing on the road is difficult in general,” Williams said. “You have to come prepared to play and really pay attention to the scouting report.”

Tennessee’s leading scorer, Robert Hobbs III, seeks to have another big game against Kentucky after tallying 25 points in the previous meeting. However, in the past two Vol losses, Hubbs is averaging only seven points and is a combined 5-of-20 from the floor.

The remainder of the Vols’ role players are expected to contribute the same way they did against the Wildcats back in late January. In that game, Lew Evans, Admiral Schofield and Lamonte Turner combined to score 33 points off the bench.

Prediction

Kentucky could surely use a convincing performance. A win keeps the Wildcats in a tie for first place in the SEC. For Tennessee, another loss puts a dent in its NCAA Tournament aspirations.

There’s a reason the Wildcats average over 90 points per game. They’ve failed to do so in seven of the last nine games, but expect Kentucky to get back on track offensively and flirt with the century mark. Although the Wildcats’ defensive problems may allow Tennessee to stick around, Kentucky has too much firepower. The Vols effort is a valiant one, but the Wildcats ultimately prevail, 91-83.

Edited by David Bradford

Featured image by Austin Perryman, courtesy of Tennessee Athletics