World-renowned archaeological writer and professor of archaeology, Brian Fagan, spoke to a packed house of students and professors at the UC on Thursday, Feb. 26.

Sponsored by the Issues Committee, Fagan's talk focused on drawing parallels between the medieval warming period and today's climate. He recently wrote a book, The Great Warming, partially concentrating on this subject. Fagan also worked for six years at the Livingston Museum in Zambia, which inspired much of his writing.

At the beginning of his presentation, Fagan explained the real reason he is on his speaking tour this year.

"We must remember that millions of people in the world today still live at the mercy of unpredictable rainfalls and from one harvest to the next."

Fagan also pointed out that our world is comparable to that of the medieval warming period, in that many people were displaced because of famine and drought during that time as well.

The wars of the future are not going to be fought over petty nationalism or stupid religious doctrines, but they will be fought over water.-Brian Fagan, professor of archaeology at the University of California at Santa Cruz

Much of the climate information known about the medieval period is gathered through various forms of scientific dating technologies.

Tree ring dating is actually one of the most precise techniques being used in modern science, he said. It has allowed scientists to narrow down the dates of many different historic climatic events far more than ever thought possible.

Fagan explained that through these different forms of dating technologies, scientists have come to understand that the period from 800-1250 A.D. was characterized by higher snow lines, increased summer temperature, widespread drought and a warmer environment in England and Germany.  

"1,000 years ago, Europe was like other parts of the world today," Fagan said. They lived from harvest to harvest and most did not live beyond the age of 28.

During the same time Europe was warming, the American West was experiencing warming weather as well. This period of warming was characterized by two prolonged droughts in California, one from 910-1100 A.D. and the other from 1210-1340 A.D.

In fact, droughts may be occurring in California again, Fagan said.

"I have a horrible feeling, since the world is warming, that we are going into more prolonged droughts."

We can learn a lot from the medieval warming period when it's applied to modern-day society, Fagan said

The world has suffered a 25 percent increase in global drought since 1990, and within this century that drying will affect 30 percent of the world. Fagan also believes that statistics support the idea that by 2050, 130 million Asians will suffer food shortages because of a decrease in rice yields.

Fagan also called the audience to action by asking them not to ignore the pain of the people in today's society living from harvest to harvest at the will of the weather.

"These people, to a certain extent are off the radar, but we cannot afford to have them off the radar."

Fagan admitted he doesn't know the possible solutions to the problems presented by a warming world, but he does fear for what could potentially happen because of it.

"The wars of the future are not going to be fought over petty nationalism or stupid religious doctrines, but they will be fought over water," he said.

Fagan did issue a warning, saying that everyone must understand that the warming of the world will affect our children's grandchildren, so we must immediately stop denying the reality of the situation.

Fagan ended his talk on a hopeful note. Despite all of the factors working against humans today, he still believes we will come out better than we were before.

"We will prevail," he said.