In the final week before Nov. 4, Republican candidate John McCain has a steep climb ahead of him if he is to win the election. According to the latest polls, Democratic candidate Barack Obama is substantially ahead in enough states to give him a nearly insurmountable lead with a few days to go.

At first glance, Obama isn't doing much more than previous Democratic candidate John Kerry did in 2004.  Obama is strong along the west coast and among the New England states, as well as in northern states like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and his home state Illinois, all states Kerry won in the 2004 election.

What is different from four years ago is that he is polling very well in Ohio and Iowa. The latest poll conducted by NBC/Mason-Dixon shows Obama leading by 11 points at 51 percent in Iowa. The latest Big Ten Battleground Poll shows Obama leading by 12 points at 53 percent in Ohio. They may just be two states, but they account for 27 electoral votes, putting Obama at 279 electoral votes before even considering battleground states like Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia and Florida.

For McCain, this could be an impossible lead to overcome. McCain does have substantial leads in the Bible Belt and parts of the heartland, but there are considerably fewer electoral votes in those states than there are in the northeast and the West coast. Additionally, states that traditionally vote Republican are leaning further to Obama. These states include Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico.  Even North Dakota shows a 2 percent lead for Obama, according to Forum/Minnesota State U. Moorhead.

Moreover, the states in which McCain has better than a 10 percent lead in the polls, including much of tornado alley, the southeast and Alaska, account for only 115 electoral votes. Even when considering states in which the latest polling is close to the margin of error, like Montana, South Dakota, Arizona, West Virginia, Louisiana and Georgia, McCain is looking at 160 electoral votes at most, according to CNN's election tracker.

Fortunately for McCain, polls don't completely represent the electorate. This can be seen in West Virginia, where the CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation shows McCain with a nine point lead at 53 percent, but the CNN Poll of Polls shows Obama leading by eight points at 50 percent.  Also, polls in Indiana have been bouncing from leaning five points in McCain's favor in the Oct. 3-6 CNN/Time/Opinion Research Group poll to leaning nine points in Obama's favor according to the Big Ten Battleground Poll conducted Oct. 19-22.

The election is actually closer than it may appear. If McCain can win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri, that would put him 73 electoral votes closer at 233 assuming he can hold onto all the states in which he's polling ahead of Obama.  Additionally, North Dakota, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico could still swing back in McCain's favor if the Republican base shows up in full force, giving McCain 22 more electoral votes at 255, 15 short of the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.

With this admittedly optimistic scenario, McCain still has a few openings. Indiana and its 11 electoral votes was expected to swing for McCain, but the latest Big Ten Battleground Poll shows Obama with a nine point lead at 51 percent. Virginia hasn't voted for a Democrat in decades, but the latest Washington Post poll shows Obama with an eight point lead at 52 percent, and it carries 13 electoral votes. For McCain to win this election he has to win both of these states, putting him at 279 electoral votes and giving him some breathing room in the southwestern states like Colorado, which carries nine electoral votes, Nevada and New Mexico, which carry five electoral votes apiece.

Another possibility is for McCain to turn Pennsylvania, which carries 21 electoral votes. Most polls have been statistically counting McCain out here, with the Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll consistently showing Obama at better than 50 percent and the latest Temple University poll showing Obama with a nine point advantage at 52 percent.  McCain hopes to turn the tide in Pennsylvania's rural and suburban districts and hopefully pick up a good number of people that originally voted for Hillary Clinton during the Democratic primary election.  If he can win here, McCain can afford to lose Indiana, Virginia and either New Mexico or Nevada.