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Thoughts from the Orange Futon: NFL season takes shape
TNJN
Former Tennessee linebacker Jerod Mayo leads the Patriots with 48 tackles in his rookie season.
published: October 28 2008 09:32 PM updated:: October 30 2008 08:48 AM

The NFL season is now eight weeks old, and enough time has passed to begin separating the contenders from the pretenders. 24 teams have already had a bye, with the remaining eight getting off weeks over the next 14 days.

The top two teams in each conference have separated themselves from the competition in my eyes, while there is also a clear group of seven teams at the bottom of the league.

As for the other 21 teams, they're all pretty even. Here's my best shot at separating them at the season's mid-way point.

The Frontrunners: Titans, Giants

It's clear these are the top teams in the league at this point in the season. Just because the record of the Titans' opponents is sub-par doesn't mean they haven't beaten anyone. The Colts, Jaguars and Vikings were sexy Super Bowl picks going into the year, and the Texans were ESPN's sleeper pick this season.

The Giants have been dominant save two games, both of which came against teams from Ohio. How can a team this good get blown out by Cleveland and be forced to overtime by the Bengals?

Waiting in the Wings: Panthers, Steelers

These teams haven't been as impressive as the top two, but to me they're each the clear second choice in their respective conferences. The Panthers are one of the quietest 6-2 teams I can remember and have no real weaknesses in my eyes.

The Steelers, on the other hand, need to fix the offensive line. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked a combined 13 times against the Giants and Eagles, the two best pass rushes Pittsburgh has faced all season.

Up Here by Default: Redskins, Patriots, Bills

They all have good records, but they're deceptive records. None of these teams are anything special, and I think they're more likely to fall back than challenge the top four.

The Bills do have an extremely light schedule and should be able to take advantage of that, but they will show their true colors once January rolls around.

Defense wins Championships: Bears, Bucs, Ravens

These teams are all in a position to push for the postseason, and they all have a shot to make some noise should they get there, because they can shut down anybody.

And don't look now, but the Bears can actually outscore teams, too. The other two have yet to prove they can do the same, and I don't see that happening anytime soon.

Not as Good as you Think: Packers, Eagles, Cowboys, Jaguars, Colts, Broncos, Chargers

These teams all have something in common: they're too talented to be this low. However, they are all flawed in one way or another. Look for about half of these teams to turn things around and become contenders, and the other half to go the wrong way.

My money says the Packers and Eagles emerge as legitimate challengers in the NFC, with the Jaguars and Chargers the likeliest to do the same in the AFC.

Preseason Pretenders: Jets, Vikings

These were two hot playoff picks entering 2008, and neither has done anything to make me think they can follow through on those predictions. Sure, they're still in their division races, but come January, I believe they'll be sitting at home. Sorry, Mr. Favre, but I refuse to suck up to you like the rest of the world.

Don't Sleep on this Group: Cardinals, Saints, Browns, Dolphins, Falcons, Texans

None of these teams have lost to any of the really bad teams, and most of these teams have beaten teams ranked above this group. The only team in this tier that hasn't beaten a higher-ranked team is Houston, but they did beat Miami and have won three straight.

The Really bad Teams: Rams, Raiders, Seahawks, 49ers, Chiefs, Bengals, Lions

The subhead says it all: these teams stink. The Rams have shown improvement lately and are the closest to moving up, but they're still just 2-5. The rest of these teams should start focusing on watching college games. Each will be picking in the draft's top 10 when it comes around.

Week 9 Picks

Bills over Jets

Bears over Lions

Jaguars over Bengals

Browns over Ravens

Titans over Packers

Bucs over Chiefs

Rams over Cardinals

Texans over Vikings

Dolphins over Broncos

Falcons over Raiders

Giants over Cowboys

Eagles over Seahawks

Colts over Patriots

Steelers over Redskins

Kerry Collins has led the Titans to the upper echelon of the NFL. (flickr/vermillion)

League Leaders

QB Rating: Philip Rivers, SD; 107.8

Rushing Yards: Clinton Portis, Was; 944

Receiving Yards: Andre Johnson, Hou; 772

Tackles: Jonathan Vilma, NO; 72

Sacks: Joey Porter, Mia; 10.5

Interceptions: Cortland Finnegan, Ten; Charles Woodson, GB; Michael Griffin, Ten; Nick Collins, GB; Oshiomogho Atogwe, St.L; 4

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