Over the past couple of weeks, I've listened to many observers and analysts discuss potential MVP candidates. A month ago, Kobe Bryant and LeBron James were the front-runners. James has fallen off and now Chris Paul of the New Orleans Hornets has emerged as Bryant’s closest competition.
Yes, Kevin Garnett deserves consideration for his impact on the Boston Celtics turnaround from 24 total wins last season to 60 going into Thursday’s games, but Garnett has two other superstars on his team that help him shoulder the load.
Bryant and Paul both have stars on their teams and you can argue that some of their teammates have been superstars at one point or another, but neither have the trifecta of stars the Celtics have in Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Garnett.
Let’s face it, Kobe is great. That's an understatement. He's the second fastest player to score 10,000 points, has won three titles (although he had Shaquille O’Neal) and draws many comparisons to the near-unanimous greatest player ever, Michael Jordan.
Paul is headed in the same direction. No longer is Steve Nash the consensus best point guard in the game as Paul has arguably snatched the title this season with the way he is leading his team. Before the season began, I figured the Hornets to finish either third or fourth in their division. Their division foes include the Texas Triangle (San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas) and Memphis.
Chris Paul has the Hornets in first place in the Western Conference. Although the conference race is the tightest in league history, I believe Paul will keep his team in the top three of the West.
I strongly believe Kobe's MVP status got a boost after the Los Angeles Lakers acquired Pau Gasol from the Memphis Grizzlies. The Lakers went on a big winning streak and Kobe was finally given his due props.
Although he is a great scorer, he has never won the league's most coveted individual award. That might change this season as he's become a better team player. The strategy has worked as the Lakers look like a strong title contender.
Paul currently leads the league in assists with 11.4 per game, and he still scores 21 points per game. He became the third fastest player to ever get 2,000 assists after dishing out 10 last night. He turned teammates into All-Stars in the process of getting his first selection of his own to the mid-season All-Star festivities. He makes his center, Tyson Chandler, look better than he is. Every time you watch Sports Center after New Orleans plays you’re almost guaranteed a highlight of Paul throwing Chandler an alley-oop.
I won’t make my decision on who should win the award until the end of the season. I do think that Paul may be a little more deserving simply because no one expected his team to be where they are. Kobe may get the award simply because of seniority. No matter who wins it, both deserve it and will definitely provide fans with many more debates in the coming years.
That saying “defense wins championships” applies in the NBA too.
Playoff Push
The Western Conference has nine teams fighting for eight playoff spots. The Denver Nuggets recently took over the eighth spot after the Golden State Warriors managed to hold it for most of the season.
I think the Mavericks and the Warriors will hold on for the final two spots. based on the remaining schedules. Keep in mind, Denver and Dallas hold the tiebreaker over Golden St.
Dallas looked like they were completely out of it when Dirk Nowitzki went down with a high ankle sprain, but his returned Wednesday night brought the energy they needed to knock off Golden State.
Since trading for Jason Kidd in mid-February, the win over the Warriors was the Mavericks first in 11 tries over a team with a winning record. I believe it's their experience that will give them the edge they need.
Denver has two of the better scorers in the league yet they can’t stop anybody else from scoring, so what good does that do?
That saying “defense wins championships” applies in the NBA too.
Comments
Lester Hayes commented, on April 4, 2008 at 2:42 a.m.:
I believe Kobe is the MVP this season. He is a better defender than both Chris Paul and Lebron, plus his team has been injured all year and Kobe has carried them to a top spot in the West.
Jason commented, on April 4, 2008 at 9:58 a.m.:
To Lester:
Lakers are 5-5 without Bynum and they are 5-5 without Bynum/Gasol. They are a .500 team without those two. That's WAY out of the playoff picture in the West. Please reconsider the 'team injuries' portion of your theory.
timmy commented, on April 4, 2008 at 12:06 p.m.:
do me a favour go check new orleans record last year without peja. y dont u take out david west and peja and then see how far new orleans goes.think b4 u talk
George commented, on April 4, 2008 at 2:26 p.m.:
Seriously, WTF Jason and your stupid ass theory
noapple commented, on April 4, 2008 at 5:38 p.m.:
I am just an ordinary fan enthralled with an extraordinary athlete and human being. I do not work for the Hornets.
This is FYI only.
THE SCOOP ON CHRIS PAUL
•CP3 is bidding to become the first player in 15 years and just the sixth in NBA history to average at least 20 points and 10 assists (joining Oscar Robertson, Isiah Thomas, Magic Johnson, Tim Hardaway and Tiny Archibald). He is also closing in on becoming the first player in NBA history to average at least 20 points, 10 assists and three steals.
•Team has surpassed last year’s win total (39), has the best road record (20-11) in the West and the most wins against the Western Conference (30). · Averaged over 20 points, 10 assists and three steals in both December and February, becoming the first player to post 20-10-3 in multiple months in NBA history. Only one other player has done it once during a season (John Stockton, 1990-91).
•Has four games of 25+ points and 15+ assists (the rest of the NBA has three combined) and has nine games of 20+ points and 15+ assists (the rest of the NBA has seven combined). Had consecutive games of 25+ points and 15+ assists 3/12 vs. SAS and 3/14 vs. LAL, marking the first time in 15 years a player has done so (Tim Hardaway, 1991-92).
•Had five straight games with 20+ points and 10+ assists from 3/5 to 3/14, totaling 138 points and 79 assists. Only two other players in NBA history have amassed that many points and assists in a five-game span (Magic Johnson, 1988-89, and Tiny Archibald, 1972-73).
•Had 31 points, 11 assists and nine steals, 2/20 vs. DAL, making him the just the fourth player in NBA history (along with Rick Barry, Larry Bird and Scottie Pippen) to have at least 30 points, double-digit assists and nine or more steals in the same game. · Has made or assisted on 48 percent of his team’s field goals this season. No other player has finished a season with such a high percentage since John Stockton in 1990-91.
•Had 16 points and 14 assists as a reserve for the Western Conference All-Star Team, becoming just the fourth player in All-Star Game history (along with Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas and Oscar Robertson) to reach 14+ points and 14+ assists in the game.
•Has at least one steal in all 63 games this season (longest current streak in the NBA)--a franchise record.
•Has 41 double-doubles (fifth in NBA, second among point guards) and 24 20/10 games. · Ranks in the top 10 in the NBA in steals, assists and free throw percentage (first in steals, second in assists, eighth in free throw percentage).
•NBA Western Conference Player of the Month (December) and Player of the Week (Dec. 24-Dec. 30).
Player of the week last week. Player of the Month(March)
Rezco commented, on April 4, 2008 at 7:33 p.m.:
Jason, you are a complete moron. How are the Lakers 5-5 without Bynum if Andrew has not played in 3 months? Do you think the Lakers play a total of 10 games in 3 months time? Seriously grow a damn brain.
They picked up Pau in February and he proceeded to get injured a month later and missed the last 3 weeks. Kobe has not yet played a single game this year with both Bynum and Gasol on the floor together.
If Chris Paul lost both Chandler and Allstar David West (not to mention the Lakers have also lost Trevor Ariza for 3 months who is their best defender outside Bryant) for half the season they would not even make the playoffs.
And to they guy who can't debate for himself and instead needs to copy/paste meaningless stats through plagiarizing, go to school and learn to think and analyze for yourself.
RR commented, on April 4, 2008 at 7:39 p.m.:
noapple, you are a straight up groupie. You are enthralled by a great human being? LOL, that's some funny stuff right there. It's an MVP vote, not the Mother Theresa award.
Now, for your garbage stats you posted, and to the misguided Jason:
Kobe Bryant deserves MVP:
They are 1 1/2 games back of New Orleans (1st place).
They Lakers are only one game worse at home than New Orleans
The Lakers are one game worse on the road than New Orleans
They Lakers have a better division record and they have the exact same record against the Western Conference.
The Lakers have a larger margin of victory than the hornets.
I think any reasonable person would look at the results of all this and conclude that the Hornets and Lakers are roughly a similar quality team.
BUT: Pau Gasol has been a Laker for 31 games. That means he's been on the roster for about 41% of the Lakers season so far (31/75). He's missed 12 games. The 10 starting at New Orleans and ending with Washington. And he's missed 2 games where he was a Laker but hadn't been acclimated to the system (Toronto, Washington). So he's missed 12 of those 31 games or 39% of the games he's been a Laker.
So look at that. Pau Gasol has been a Laker for over 40% of the Lakers' season, but has missed over a third of the games he has been on the roster.
Andrew Bynum has been on the roster all year. He has played 35 games this season. That means he has missed 40 games! He has missed 53.3% of the season!
The Lakers have played 20 games without either Bynum or Gasol in the lineup. That's 26% of the Lakers season! To put in perspective, that's over a quarter of the Lakers' NBA season with almost no frontline.
Now look at the Hornets:
David West has played in 68 of 74 games. That means he's played in 92% of New Orleans' games so far.
Tyson Chandler has played in 71 of 74 games. That means he's played in 96% of New Orleans' games.
Peja has played in 69 of the 74 games. That means he's played in 93.2% of New Orleans' games.
That would be enough to put the Lakers injury situation into context versus New Orleans, BUT WAIT, there's more.
Peja missed games on 12/9, 12/12, 12/15, 12/17, 12/19
Tyson missed games on 11/21, 2/6, 2/9
West missed games on 1/5, 3/5, 3/7, 3/8, 3/16, 3/17
What is interesting here is that of Paul's top 3 supporting players NONE OF THEM EVER missed a game on the same day. Not once. Ever. It happened to Kobe for over a quarter of the Lakers' seasaon (20/75). It NEVER happened to Paul.
Yet the Lakers are only 1 1/2 games back from first in the West.
And you say Bryant isn't the MVP compared to Paul? Now that's laughable.
Jason commented, on April 5, 2008 at 2:20 a.m.:
The Lakers are a total of 10-10 when they don't have Bynum but have Gasol or when they don't have Bynum/Gasol. The numbers are correct. .500 team.
To say that Kobe without Bynum-Gasol would fare better than Paul if Paul was without West-Chandler is purely HYPOTHETICAL. Has Paul been given this chance? Don't talk about last year we are talking about this years MVP. This only Paul's 3rd year. You don't think the Hornets would be a better than .500 team without those two? Maybe. But how do you KNOW? You CAN'T give someone the MVP based on HYPOTHETICAL terms, something that HASN'T happened! Also the Lakers still have a MUCH better team on paper than the Hornets without Gasol-Bynum and Hornets without West-Chandler.
Chris Paul not only has his team on top of the Western Conference (I would say even better than the Celtics since the Celtics get to feed off East Coast teams) he also is having BEST statistical season for a point guard EVER. I said EVER. The next closest point guard in PER is in the history of the NBA is not even close.
"They are 1 1/2 games back of New Orleans (1st place)."
Exactly
"The Lakers are one game worse on the road than New Orleans"
Exactly
"They Lakers have a better division record and they have the exact same record against the Western Conference."
Um...did you forget to mention who has the toughest division? Yes New Orleans.
"The Lakers have a larger margin of victory than the Hornets."
Yet they allow over a 100 points.
"I think any reasonable person would look at the results of all this and conclude that the Hornets and Lakers are roughly a similar quality team."
Well when I look at the results, The Hornets are looking a little better. I am a reasonable person :)
Chris Paul is clearly the MVP but people are going to give it to Bryant anyways because it is good for the media and is good for the NBA in the sense of publicity it will bring.
Others will give it to Bryant because they think due to his lifetime achievement he deserves it.
Sorry but this is a single season award.
Mr. Natural commented, on April 5, 2008 at 11:41 a.m.:
If Chris Paul doesn't win the MVP, then the selection process lacks integrity. He's obviously the MVP over everyone else.
Mr. Natural
Super-D commented, on April 6, 2008 at 4:31 a.m.:
So you basically conclude that Bryant should not get this year's MVP for three reasons:
1)Yes, Kobe is a great player. He just isn't the most productive player in the NBA.
2)The Lakers improvement this year is not about Kobe.
3)Kobe, who has not been voted MVP in the past, is actually not much different from what he was in the past. He just has better teammates. So it's not about this season, but a lifetime award.
Here are three relevant issues that you failed to consider:
1) When looking at the Lakers' record with various player combinations (with Bynum, with Gasol, etc.) did you factor in the home/road balance of those various schedules and the quality of the opponents that the Lakers faced? The truth is their schedule without Bynum and Gasol has been heavily slanted toward road games and/or games against good teams. Their 11-9 record with Kobe and without either Bynum or Gasol is very impressive considering that fact, even with the two recent losses to poor teams (Fisher has come up lame now as well).
2) You imply Kobe should not be the MVP because most of the team's improvement has come from the other players but fail to consider how much of that "improvement" is the result of playing with Kobe. For instance, the Lakers have spot up shooters who get wide open shots because Kobe must be double-teamed; Kobe's presence gets them open opportunities whether or not Kobe is credited with an assist on those shots. Kobe is the victim of a form of "double jeopardy": when those players failed to make those shots the past two seasons he was "disqualified" for MVP consideration because his team did not win enough games; this year they are making those shots and he is being "disqualified" because he supposedly has such a strong supporting cast. Nash's supporting cast of Amare, Marion and others was not held against him, so why should the improvement of Kobe's supporting cast be held against him?
Super-D commented, on April 6, 2008 at 4:38 a.m.:
cont...
3) Paul's top two big men have been healthy and played together for the entire season. Kobe has played with Bynum, then without either big man, then with Gasol without Bynum and now has endured another stretch without either big man. Yet, despite all of this turmoil, Kobe's team is right in the thick of the race with the Hornets. Last year, the Hornets and Lakers both had injury problems and the Lakers had two starters (Kwame and Smush) who would not have even played for any other playoff team, let alone being starters; Kobe guided his team to the playoffs, Paul did not. Yes, last season does not directly relate to this season but if we are going to compare Kobe this year to Kobe in previous years the above analysis is much more to the point and highlights the fact that Kobe consistently has done more with less talent around him than Paul has. Put Kobe with West and Chandler for a whole year and give Paul the proportions of Bynum, Gasol and Turiaf/Mbenga that Kobe has had this season and do you really believe that Paul would do as much with that group as Kobe has?...Of course not.
Measuring the "productivity" of a basketball player is not an exact science. For one thing, statistics do not capture everything that happens on the court. Second, per-minute numbers make assumptions about how productive a player would be if he played more minutes but those assumptions cannot be proven. Third, "productivity" is interactive: a player who draws double-teams can make weaker players seem more productive, while four weaker players surrounding a great player can make the great player seem less productive. Bryant is a more skillful player than LeBron James and Chris Paul, Bryant simply has fewer weaknesses. Paul's defense is based on steals in the passing lane; he has no man to man defense in his arsenal that is beyond the college level. Sure he is young, and in time he will learn to play that type of defense, but for now his defense is completely inadequate for a supposed MVP.
It is a fallacy to compare Kobe this year to Kobe in previous years, and attempt to build a ready made excuse; Kobe's performance in other seasons is not relevant and does not disqualify him from winning the award this season if he is the most qualified candidate, as Kobe Bryant has clearly shown he has throughout THIS entire season.
stu commented, on April 13, 2008 at 1:36 a.m.:
Kobe Wins.