The drought in east Tennessee may cause this fall's foliage to be less than pleasing. The drought has been in progress for about the last 11 months according to Ken Orvis, an associate professor in the Department of Geography at the University of Tennessee.  

"September was about 51 percent below normal. For the last year (12 months) as a whole, we're 28 percent below normal. For the last six months, we're about 18 percent below normal," he said.

Brian Boyd, senior service hydrologist at the National Weather Service in Morristown, Tenn., believes that the current drought actually started in the 1900s.

At this point it is a worse drought than anyone can remember. Brian Boyd, senior service hydrologist, National Weather Service, Morristown, Tenn.

"This current drought started in the late 1990s and worsened until about 2002. The year 2003 was actually a very wet one, even a record wet one in some areas in East Tennessee. However, that quickly changed back in 2004 to dry and has been worsening ever since. At this point it is a worse drought than anyone can remember," said Boyd.

Orvis said that because of the length of the drought some trees may drop their dry leaves without going through the color phase. However, he said that the decent amount of rainfall in August may cause the larger trees to be stressed only mildly and that with cooperating temperatures could produce good colors. 

"Trees get good color when the leaves are starchy, and moderate drought makes them that way (but other things like night-time cooling—not too extreme—are needed too for good color). If the trees are too dry though, the leaves tend to just turn brown and fall off. Of course, dry weather is good right during the color season if only because stormy weather will knock the leaves off," Orvis said.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration east Tennessee may have a warmer than average winter and early spring. Boyd believes that Tennessee will end up on the drier side as far as precipitation goes. "The rule of thumb for forecasting the end of a drought is, 'When in doubt, forecast drought'," he said.